He Yongjie, Wang Yuhao, Huang Dekai

On October 8^th, Donald Trump, ongoing president of America, announced an early military withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Afghan war, which lasted for more than ten years, brought great losses to the United States, and the United States was eager to withdraw from the quagmire of the Afghan war. The signing of the U.S.-Taliban agreement launched the Afghan peace process. With the withdrawal of U.S. troops and the intensification of Taliban violence, will the intra-afghan negotiations be go to a dead end?

1.The internal negotiations are intricate and convoluted

Under the U.S.-Taliban agreement, the Afghan government will set 5,000 Taliban prisoners free while the Taliban will release 1,000 army prisoners to facilitate negotiations within Afghanistan. Internal negotiations will begin on 10 March following the completion of the prisoner release process. But serious disagreements between the Afghan government and the Taliban over the release of prisoners have led to repeated delays in the talks. The U.S. reached a prisoner swap deal with the Taliban without the Afghan government’s involvement. In this regard, the Afghan government expressed clear opposition, that this is the authority of the Afghan government, cannot be released as a precondition for negotiations with the Taliban. The Taliban have said they will not negotiate unless all prisoners are released. The Afghan government is caught in a dilemma, with 400 of the 5,000 prisoners charged with serious crimes, in its capture others involved in the Kabul bombings and attacks on foreign troops, and countries such as France and Australia have expressed clear opposition to the prisoner swap.

In an effort to speed up internal negotiations, the United States has forced the Afghan government to loosen its grip on the release of prisoners by cutting aid. Afghan President Ghani said the release of prisoners was “dangerous but necessary” for the Afghan peace process. The Afghan government completed the release of 5,000 prisoners in August, opening the way for internal negotiations. On Sept. 12, the two sides held the opening ceremony of internal negotiations in the Qatari capital, Doha. But so far, Taliban and Afghan government have not started direct talks, and their contact groups have met several times to set procedural rules for the talks. The Taliban demanded recognition of the U.S.-Taliban agreement as the basis for internal negotiations. The Afghan government said it had not participated in the U.S.-Taliban talks and did not want to impose the terms of the U.S.-Taliban agreement on the Afghan people. The two sides are at loggerheads on this issue and the negotiations have been stalled for some time.

2.The Taliban’s peace will be called into question

   After the U.S.-Taliban agreement was signed, the Taliban stepped up violence against government forces. UNAMA (UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan) reported in May that Taliban violent attacks in April had increased by 25 per cent compared to the same period in 2019 and that violence had increased by nearly 40 per cent over the past three months. The Afghan government says more than 10,000 troops have been killed and more than 3,000 civilians killed since February. The ongoing violence poses a serious challenge to the internal negotiations, which have so far been held, but the Taliban offensive remains unabated and the level of violence remains high.

In addition, while the Taliban promised the United States in the us-Taliban agreement that they would sever all ties with terrorist groups, United Nations reports indicate that there are still close ties between the Taliban and Al Qaeda, particularly the Haqqani Network. The Taliban regularly consulted with Al Qaida in their negotiations with the United States and pledged to respect their historical ties with Al Qaida. Al Qaeda responded positively to the U.S.-Taliban agreement, saying it was a victory for the Taliban cause. The Taliban’s violation of the anti-terrorism commitments in the U.S.-Taliban agreement is a major challenge to the U.S.-Taliban agreement, and its commitment to the Afghan peace process has also been questioned by the international community.

3.Fighting within the government is fierce

The Afghan government is divided and politically unstable. In February, when the results of the presidential election were announced, President Ghani defeated his opponent, former chief executive Abdullah, with 50.64 percent of the vote. But Abdullah and his supporters called for a full review of the results, which they said were fraudulent. There was even a presidential inauguration, leading to a “parallel government” in Afghanistan. The struggle between the two men not only divided the government, but also hindered the internal peace process to some extent. Finally, under American pressure, the two men reached a power-sharing agreement in May, with Abdullah serving as chairman of the High Commission for National Reconciliation and sharing 50 per cent of cabinet appointments with Ghani. But the power-sharing agreement is a temporary compromise that does not resolve the fundamental conflict between the two men. If the fighting between the two men continues, it will certainly pose a challenge to the Afghan peace process.

4.The road to peace is a rocky one

The negotiations between the United States and the Taliban left the Afghan government to reach an agreement, greatly weakening the legitimacy of the Afghan government, while the United States imposed unequal “prisoner exchange” conditions on the Afghan government, has left the Afghan government in a weak position in negotiations with the Taliban. Affected by the outbreak, the United States accelerated the pace of withdrawal, under which the United States committed to reduce its forces to 8,600 within 135 days and withdraw from five military bases and all military forces within 14 months. On October 8^th, Trump announced that all American troops would be withdrawn by Christmas this year, but then American security advisers said they would reduce the number to 2,500 by 2021. Although the two men disagree, the United States will gradually reduce the number of American troops in Afghanistan. With the further withdrawal of U.S. troops, it will inevitably lead to the further expansion of the Taliban’s power in Afghanistan. US President Donald Trump, in response to a U.S. troop withdrawal, said the Taliban was “likely” to seize power following the U.S. withdrawal. Overall, the path to peace in Afghanistan also faces many challenges, and internal negotiations are highly likely to reach an impasse.

Firstly, Afghan government and Taliban is riddled with contradictions and has low internal cohesion. The Taliban had said they did not recognize the Afghan government before the talks began, and the two sides were deeply divided over the formation of an interim government, constitutional changes, the protection of women’s rights and the timing of a permanent ceasefire. The Taliban have made clear their opposition to the establishment of an interim government, with the goal of driving out all foreign military forces and creating a Islamic Emirate, contrary to the Afghan government’s desire to establish a secular republic.

Secondly, the U.S.-Taliban agreement has many flaws. First, the government was excluded from the start of the negotiations and a series of treaties were imposed on it, which put it at a disadvantage in the negotiations and significantly undermined its legitimacy. Second, Afghan government and Taliban is at odds with each other, and internal negotiations could take months or even years to reach an agreement, or break down as the conflict escalates into civil war. The possibility of a U.S. troop withdrawal before an agreement is reached between Afghan government and Taliban will exacerbate the instability in the country. In the end, the United States made too many promises to Taliban and neglected the discussion of democracy, especially the protection of women’s rights, which led to the U.S.-Taliban agreement being disputed by the international community. In addition, there are many factions within the Taliban, it is difficult to reach a consensus. The Path to peace in Afghanistan remains fraught with risk.

(The Three authors are scholars at Yunnan University Institute of International Relations, China.)