Irfan Ahmed

The sensitive price indicator (SPI) based inflation for the week ending December 1, 2002 witnessed an increase of 30.56% compared to last year (December 02, 2021), reports WealthPK.  Inflation in the preceding week was measured at 30.16% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. However, on a week-on-week (WoW) basis, inflation was inching down by 0.16%, mainly due to a decrease in prices of perishable food items.

Furthermore, average inflation during the first five months of the current fiscal year (5MFY23) stands at 25.06%, compared to 9.29% during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the CPI reading increased by 4.7% mainly on the back of surge in food prices.

According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), an increase was observed in the prices of onions (388.52%), tomatoes (73.25%), tea Lipton (62.61%), powdered salt (55.29%), pulse gram (52.71%), bananas (52.02%), eggs (51.87%), pulse moong (47.67%), pulse mash (43.44%), mustard oil (42.51%), diesel (64.57%), petrol (53.85%), and gents’ sponge chappal (52.21%).

On the other hand, a major decrease was observed in the prices of powdered chillies (40.90%), gur (5.35%) and electricity (2.67%).

According to the PBS, the combined index decreased to 218.51 points on December 1, 2022, compared to 218.87 points on November 24, 2022, while the index was recorded at 167.36 points on December 2, 2021.  The SPI monitors the prices of 51 essential items based on a survey of 50 markets in 17 cities of the country. During the week under review, out of 51 items, prices of 23 (45.10%) items increased, 10 (19.61%) items decreased and 18 (35.29%) items remained stable. Tomatoes were one of the key commodities that decreased the weekly inflation, with prices decreasing by 12.26% on a WoW basis.

Meanwhile, compared to the previous week, the SPI for the combined consumption group during the week under review witnessed a slight decrease of 0.16%. According to economic experts, core inflation continues its upward trajectory. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has also revised its inflation expectations for FY23 to 21-23% from 18-20%. Commodities that saw a major decrease in prices included tomatoes (12.26%), onions (2.79%), chicken (1.71%), pulse gram (0.68%), pulse masoor (0.64%), vegetable ghee 2.5kg (0.38%), vegetable ghee 1kg (0.12%), cooking oil 5 litre and gur (0.11%) each and LPG (-0.42%).

On the other hand, decrease was observed in the prices of bananas (3.36%), tea Lipton (1.72%), potatoes (1.65%), match box and powdered salt (1.32%) each and rice irri-6/9 (1.23%). Alternatively, the prices of 18 items remained stable including beef with bone (average quality), mutton (average quality), tea, chilies powder, long cloth 57" Gul Ahmed/Al Karam, lawn printed Gul Ahmed/Al Karam, georgette (average quality), gents’ sandal, gents’ sponge chappal, ladies sandal, electricity, gas charges up to 3.3719mmbtu, energy saver 14-watt, match box, petrol super, hi-speed diesel, telephone call charges, and toilet soap. The SPI for the lowest consumption group up to Rs17,732 observed a decrease of 0.34% and went down to 227.45 points this week from 228.23 points last week.

On a yearly basis, analysis of the SPI change across different income segments showed that it increased across all quintiles ranging between 28.67% and 31.73%. Yearly inflation for the group with a monthly income from Rs29,518 to Rs44,175 (Q4) increased by 31.73%, while the highest income group with a monthly income above Rs44,175 recorded an increase of 30.79%. In the meantime, weekly inflation for the group with a monthly income from Rs22,889 to 29,517 (Q3) decreased by 0.24%. 

In addition, there is a mild price difference between the prices of Utility Stores Corporation (USC) and the open market (December 01, 2022). The Utility Stores prices are comparatively lesser than the open market. The USC is giving a special subsidy to consumers on pulses, flour, sugar, rice, and ghee under the government’s relief package. 

The government has reduced the prices of Utility Stores commodities on a variety of items, including flour (20kg) by Rs711.26, tota basmati rice by Rs12.77 per kg, sugar by Rs22.97 per kg, ghee Manpasand by Rs145.13 per kg, ghee Handi by Rs109.76 per kg, White gram by Rs7.60per kg, super basmati rice by Rs2.77 per kg, and rice sella by Rs2.31 per kg. On the contrary, some Utility Stores commodity prices are comparatively higher than the open market including daal masoor by Rs39.32 per kg, and daal chana by Rs3.58 per kg.

Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

Credit : Independent News Pakistan-WealthPk