INP-WealthPk

Sustainability of Macroeconomic Indicators Must to Address Poverty

February 28, 2022

By Faiza Tehseen ISLAMABAD, Feb. 28 (INP-WealthPK): Weak macroeconomic indicators reflect the overall poor performance of an economy, and thus severely erode the financial sustainability of the households, especially the poor. Pakistan’s economy was on course for a recovery after the worst macroeconomic indicators of the fiscal year 2017-18, but then the Covid-19 pandemic struck, reversing the gains. Imprudent macroeconomic policies leave a deep impact on the people as they give rise to poverty, cause improper economic outputs, increase unemployment rate, inflation, imbalances in income distribution, trade and fiscal deficit and low investments. Pakistan’s macroeconomics is affected by a few factors like a weak export sector, an imbalance between the government incomes and expenditures, rising imports, low tax-to-GDP ratio, lower investments in development infrastructure, inflation and joblessness. According to the World Bank’s Macro Poverty Outlook of Pakistan, the poverty ratio increased by 39.3% in fiscal year 2020-21 and is projected to remain at 39.2% during the fiscal year 2021-22. However, the number is expected to decrease to 37.9 during the fiscal year 2022-23. According to the report, 40% of poor and ultra-poor households are suffering from moderate to severe levels of unsustainable livelihoods. The number of working people declined to 35.04 million from 55.74 million during pandemic period as some people lost their jobs, few others could not work due to disease and few fell victim to the pandemic. Though the government took measures to help the poor through cash grants during the pandemic, that did not help to a great extent as more people fell into poverty. However, the World Bank report pointed out that in spite of still ongoing pandemic cycle, the macroeconomic indicators are showing positive signs in South Asian countries, but still the economic growth was uneven and fragile, which is to be handled in strategic ways to support the poor. The fiscal year 2020-21 and the ongoing fiscal has seen some economic recovery, but that is still not enough to ensure sustainable livelihoods for a large number of non-privileged households, whose socioeconomic vulnerabilities have been compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic. A study conducted by the United Nations Development Programme of 70 countries, including Pakistan, shows that there may be more than 490 million people who have fallen prey to a multi-fold poverty crisis due to the pandemic. For improving the socioeconomic lot of people, the government must introduce far-reaching reforms in each sector to deal with the challenges arising out of rapidly growing population. According to National Institute of Population Studies, Pakistan’s estimated population in 2021 was 215.25 million, which is increasing at the growth rate of 1.80% with the population density of 270 persons per kilometre. Nearly two-thirds of the total population comprises people under 30. Such a large number of working-age group has to be involved in the economic activity if the government really wants to curtail unemployment. A growth rate of at least 7% will be required to help the young people meet their sustenance needs. For this to happen, the government will need to develop small and medium enterprises, boost agricultural productivity, attract foreign investment and launch incentives to help the youth launch their own ventures. Sustainability in macroeconomic policy is a must to decrease the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of people.