INP-WealthPk

SBP Foreign Exchange Reserves Expected to Grow in FY2022

February 22, 2022

By Muskan Naveed ISLAMABAD, Feb 22 (INP-WealthPK): The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) have recorded a slight decrease of $241 million after an increase of $1,609.2 million the previous week – currently standing at $17,095.8 million. On the other hand, the net reserves with banks stood at $6,394.4 million at the end of the week, which makes the total foreign exchange of the country at $23,490.2 million, WealthPK reported. The year-end levels indicate the resumption of the growth of foreign exchange reserves after the reserves hit a low of $7,285.2 during 2018-19 as the incumbent government came into power. In the subsequent two years, the forex reserves of the State Bank increased at an average rate of 50% year-on-year basis, the SBP data shows. (Data on weekly basis) Pakistan launched $1 billion Sukuk bond with an interest rate of 7.95% towards the end of January. The Shariah-compliant bond was issued after a gap of four years and boasted the highest-ever yield offered by the bond. Moreover, On 2nd February, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $1 billion tranche for Pakistan under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) as the country was able to pass the State Bank Amendment Bill and the Finance Bill – implementing some of the reforms of the EFF program. The Sukuk bond issue along with the IMF tranche is responsible for the uptrend in the State Bank’s reserves on the weekly basis. What to expect? Minister for Finance Shaukat Tarin has been vocal about enhancing Pakistan’s economic sustainability. Tarin revealed, earlier, that the country will soon be utilising an ESG Eurobond. A Panda bond is also said to be under works and will hopefully be launched by March, 2022, WealthPK reported. The sixth and seventh review of the IMF-EFF is also expected to be completed by September, 2022 – which will mark the completion of the originally 39-month long program with a complete disbursement of $6 billion. So far, $3 billion has been disbursed and if the country is able to meet IMF’s conditionalities successfully, an inflow of a further $3 billion can be expected – out of which a significant chunk can be disbursed before the end of the current fiscal year. Furthermore, IMF’s prescribed austerity measures and other conditionalities are also aimed at curbing external imbalances of the country. On the other hand, the remittances have recorded a new high at $18 billion for the fiscal year 2022, WealthPK reported. According to the central bank, the remittances have suffered from the seasonality effect which led to a brief moderation but cumulatively the inflows for the year hints towards a healthy uptrend. The upcoming bond issues, IMF disbursements along with rise in remittances hint towards a strengthening current account. Now the economies throughout the world are on a road towards progress as the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic continue to wane off. The fiscal year 2023 may bring more prosperity to the Pakistani economy if it continues its current pace and records a growth of 4-5%.