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Population Growth, Low Storage Make Pakistan Vulnerable to Water Crisis

February 17, 2022

By Muhammad Soban ISLAMABAD, Feb. 17 (INP-WealthPK): Globally, water security has been one of the most debated topics in recent years. Water has played a vital role in human security throughout history, and attention to water-related threats has been growing in recent years because of increasing water risks. Due to global water security issues, Pakistan is also a vulnerable country possibly heading towards a severe water crisis. Pakistan water security is under severe pressure. According to various reports, Pakistan water reserves are depleting over the years, and Pakistan water taps may go dry by 2030. Pakistan is a semi-arid region and a primarily agricultural economy. It faces declining water availability and quality, growing water pollution, and overall environmental insecurity. This situation, coupled with institutional, operational, and governance failures, is fostering domestic discord. According to a research study on water security and challenges by Dr. Muhammad Ashraf, Chairman Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR), Pakistan's per capita water availability has continuously decreased with population growth. In 1951, Pakistan's per capita water availability was around 5,500 cubic meters, which has reduced to 900 cubic meters in 2021, and climatic changes in the region may further worsen the situation. Pakistan may face absolute water scarcity by 2025. The following graph gives a glimpse of the per capita water availability of Pakistan since the 1950s. A report of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences suggests that the agriculture sector is the biggest water user that uses 93 percent of available water resources in Pakistan. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2020-21, the agriculture sector contributes 19.2 percent to Pakistan's GDP. It employs 38.5 percent of the labour force and provides livelihood to 65-70 percent of the country's population. There are many reasons that are leading Pakistan towards water security. The primary reason is the increase in population rate. Pakistan's total population is about 225 million, and it is being estimated that it will reach 245 million by 2030. Pakistan has the highest population growth rate of 2 percent compared to India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. The increase in population is leading to a decrease in per capita water availability in Pakistan. The second reason for water scarcity is the lack of storage in Pakistan. The present water storage capacity of three major reservoirs is only 9 percent of the total annual inflow, which is 40 percent in rest of the world. Pakistan lost 120 billion cubic meters (BCM) of water during the floods in 2010, 2012, and 2014.  According to data estimates, by 2025, Pakistan needs a further 27 BCM water storage capacity to meet the water requirement. To fulfil the demand, Pakistan needs three to four large dams. Currently, Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) is constructing three big dams, including Mohmand, Diamer-Bhasha, and Dasu Dam, with a total capacity of 1.5, 10, and 1.4 BCM, respectively. The third major reason for water scarcity in Pakistan is the rapid depletion of groundwater. Groundwater provides over 93 percent of drinking water in Pakistan. It provides 60 percent irrigation water for agriculture sector. Pakistan has no groundwater management regulatory authority that controls the depth and number of tube wells in Pakistan. Anyone can install any number of tube wells at any depth, which leads to an alarming level of decline of the water table. There is a need to develop an authority to manage the number of tub wells and their depth. The fourth reason is the lack of proper management of available water. Though Pakistan has one of the largest water irrigation systems globally, it loses a large amount of water due to mismanagement. There is a need to increase efficiency in existing water usage in agriculture, which can be achieved by improving farms layout and levelling fields, using high-efficiency irrigation systems including bed and furrow irrigation, and pressurised irrigation such as sprinkler and drip irrigation. Another reason is that Pakistan does not utilise wastewater. Wastewater is being thrown into water bodies without any treatment, which threatens the ecosystem. There is a great potential of recycling wastewater of 13 BCM to narrow the gap between demand and supply.