INP-WealthPk

Political Tensions, Uncertainty Over IMF Package Keep Stock Market Subdued

May 31, 2022

By Hamid Mahmood ISLAMABAD, May 31 (INP-WealthPK): Pakistan’s stock market began the previous week (May 23) on a subdued note due to anxiety over the conclusion of talks to put the loan programme of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) back on track and the State Bank’s decision to further increase the policy rate to tame runaway inflation. This resulted in the rupee falling to an all-time low of Rs202 versus the US dollar. The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) began to plummet as the political climate got increasingly tumultuous, obstructing the efforts to arrest the economic downslide. However, things started to look better after the postponement of the planned Islamabad sit-in. with the political tensions settling for the time being, the government raised gasoline prices by Rs30 per litre, reviving investor confidence and opening the path for the IMF programme and other foreign funding routes’ resumption. According to WealthPK, the market ended the week with a loss of 239.25 points, closing at 42,861.45 points (down by 0.55%). The All-Share Index was down 89.87 points, the KSE-30 Index down 90.99 points, and the KMI-30 Index was down 428.33 points on a weekly basis.  

Index Week Start Week-End Change % Δ
KSE 100 Index 43,100.70 42,861.45 -239.25 -0.5551
All Shares Index 29,347.40 29,257.53 -89.87 -0.4289
KSE 30 Index 16,367.11 16,276.12 -90.99 -0.6462
KMI 30 Index 69,483.72 69,055.39 -428.33 -0.7255
Source: PSX/ WealthPK Research Stocks fell on May 23 (Monday) before the monetary policy meeting, as there was not even a sliver of a trigger to grasp the mounting threat of a Sri Lanka-style default over Pakistan. The benchmark KSE 100 Index fell 660.46 points, or 1.53%, to 42,440.25 points, down from 43,100.71 points in the previous session. Stocks continued to fall on May 24 (Tuesday) as the central bank raised interest rates to curb consumption-driven growth amid concerns that Pakistan would have to jump through additional hoops before receiving IMF approval for a loan revival. After touching a day high and low of 42,636.54 and 41,917.55 points, the benchmark KSE-100 Index fell 489.93 points, or 1.15%, to settle at 41,950.32 points. As political upheaval raged across the country, stocks fluctuated between losses and gains on May 25 (Wednesday), ending a smidgeon higher on value-hunting. The benchmark KSE-100 Shares Index closed at 42,012.66 points, up 62.34 points or 0.15%. Despite the downer of fruitless IMF discussions amid an oncoming balance of payment crisis, stocks jumped on May 26 (Thursday) as the scheduled Islamabad sit-in was called off, relieving worries of an escalation in political upheaval. The benchmark KSE-100 Index rose 529.05 points, or 1.26%, to 42,541.71 points, up from 42,012.66. On May 27 (Friday), stocks rose for a second day as investors viewed reduction in gasoline subsidies as a significant step towards the restart of an IMF bailout package that had been postponed. The benchmark KSE-100 Index rose 319.74 points, or 0.75%, to 42,861.45 points, up from 42,541.71 points in the previous session. [caption id="attachment_67724" align="aligncenter" width="696"] Source: PSX/WealthPK Research[/caption] By selling its shares last week (May 23-27), the Foreign Investors Portfolio Investment made a profit of $1.51 million. Insurance companies made the most money during the week, selling their shares for $7.55 million, followed by mutual funds with $7.13 million and foreign corporates with $1.19 million. Individuals purchased up to $10.99 million in shares, followed by brokers, which purchased $2.93 million in stock. Companies purchased up to $1.42 million worth of stock. According to Irfan Ahmed, a financial analyst with Arif Habib Limited, the market may stay restless in the next week owing to simmering political tensions. However, he said the elimination of gasoline and energy subsidies would help clear the way for the IMF to resume its funding programme for Pakistan.