Uzair bin Farid

Pakistan’s population is the second most-youngest in South Asia after Afghanistan, with two-thirds of the population under 30. According to data available with WealthPK, Pakistan’s population growth rate of 2.4% is higher than its neighbouring countries in the region like India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. At the current levels of population growth, Pakistan’s population is projected to reach 274 million by the year 2030, and if the trend continues, it will top 367 million by 2050. Despite measures by the government to control the population growth rate, it has not significantly come down.

The services that the government is responsible to provide for the people, like education, health, and public infrastructure, have not increased in capacity with an increase in the population. Population growth puts extra burden on the existing health and education facilities of the country. These disparities in access to education and health lead to uneven economic outcomes for the people on the peripheries. For example, the life expectancy of an average Pakistani is 66 years, the 150th ranking in the world. Similarly, Pakistan also has a high under-5 mortality rate.

Out of every 1,000 children that are born, 63.3 die before their fifth birthday, according to Pakistan Economic Survey 2022-23. Also, the infant mortality rate for 2021, for which the latest data is available, is 52.8. In the same vein, maternal mortality and neonatal mortality rates are also unreasonably high with the former at 154 for the year 2020 and the neonatal mortality rate at 39.4 for the year 2021. Other serious statistics include the incidence of tuberculosis, with 264 people affected by the disease in every sample of a thousand people. Total budgetary spending on health by the government has remained extremely low.

The health budget for the fiscal year 2023-24 has been increased by a meagre 7% over the allocation of previous fiscal year. In the current budget for FY24, the government has earmarked Rs24.210 billion for the health sector and related services, whereas in FY23, the amount spent on health was Rs22.459 billion, which is less than 2% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Moreover, in the age of social media and isolated lives, the problems of mental health have also taken a significant shape. In Pakistan, there is 0.19 psychiatrist available for 100,000 people. The shortage of medical staff is also a stark problem, since in Pakistan there are only 1.6 medical personnel for 1,000 people despite a large number of medical colleges and graduate doctors. World Health Organisation (WHO) has recommended a minimum of 2.5 medical personnel per 1,000 people.

Pakistan is not even reaching the minimum requirement. The number of out-of-school children is in the millions in Pakistan. For example, UNICEF has calculated that the total number of out-of-school children in Pakistan is almost 23 million. Also, the representation of girls in schools is very low compared to boys. In Sindh province, 58% girls are out of school, and in Balochistan province, this number stands at 78%. Overall, the level of poverty in the country currently stands at 38.3% in the multi-dimensional Poverty Index Headcount, which is higher than the South Asian average of 29%.

Human Development Index and its components (regional comparison)

Pakistan is in a challenging situation with respect to its human development levels. Poverty is rampant, health and education facilities are not available to hundreds and millions of people, and the growth rate of population is not showing signs of slowing down.

These forces of meagre resources and population explosion are creating an imbalance that is producing extra weight for the state, which is very difficult to carry. It is high time that policymakers give a serious thought to the balance between high population growth levels and basic services.

Credit: INP-WealthPk