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IMF Projects Improvement in Pakistan’s Current Account Deficit in Coming Years

April 22, 2022

By Abdul Wajid Khan ISLAMABAD, April 22 (INP-WealthPK): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Pakistan’s current account deficit is likely to decrease gradually to 2.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) by fiscal year 2026-27. According to the World Economic Outlook Report of IMF for 2022, the IMF projected that the country’s current account deficit will increase to 5.3% of its GDP during the ongoing financial year from 0.6% during last financial year. It is predicted that the current account deficit will reduce to 4.1% of its GDP in next financial year, and gradually further decrease to 2.5% by FY27. For the ongoing financial year, the IMF has forecasted that Pakistan’s real GDP will decrease to 4% from last year’s 5.6%. However, the GDP growth will recover in coming years and it will increase to 4.2% in FY23 and grow further to 5% in FY27. Inflation is expected to increase to 11.2% in FY22 from 8.9% during last fiscal year. However, it will decrease to 10.5% in FY23 and further dip to 6.5% by FY27. The IMF also projected that the unemployment rate will decrease to 7% during FY22 from 7.4% during last fiscal year, and it is expected to further decrease to 6.7% in FY23. The government has fixed targets for the ongoing financial year at 4.8% for GDP growth rate, 8% rate of inflation and current account deficit at 0.7% of GDP. The IMF highlighted that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution. Economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022. A severe double-digit drop in GDP for Ukraine and a large contraction in Russia are more than likely, along with worldwide spillovers through commodity markets, trade, and financial channels.