By Arsalan Ali ISLAMABAD, April 01 (INP-WealthPK): Constant rise in temperatures and changing patterns in monsoon rainfall are causing severe floods and extensive droughts, adversely affecting the agriculture sector’s productivity in Pakistan. The rising temperatures have also caused fast depletion of the frozen water reservoirs in the Tibetan and Himalayan glaciers, causing water shortages in the country. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), from 1960 to 1997, the average change in annual temperature was negative, but temperature has increased exponentially from 1997 onwards. In recent years, Pakistan has been experiencing the intensity of heat shock/stress, especially during the summer season, impacting the crops’ output. Talking to WealthPK about the effects of climate change on Pakistan, Dr Abdullah, Chief of Research at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, said increasing annual temperatures have a significant negative effect on the output of crops. “Rising yearly temperatures coupled with heat stresses have increased the need for cultivating heat stress-tolerant crops for sustainable agriculture.” Dr Abdullah said rising temperatures have also increased pest and weeds attacks on major crops as increasing global warming is forcing insects in warmer areas to move to colder places. According to FAO estimates, crop losses in Pakistan due to locust attacks in 2020 could be as high as Rs353 billion for the Rabi crops and Rs464 billion for the Kharif crops. Since 2010, the agriculture sector in Pakistan has suffered three severe floods that have overwhelming effect on the whole economy, which is predominantly agriculture-based. Massive destruction occurred to agricultural crops, livestock, forestry, and fisheries in the 2010, 2011 and 2014 floods, which also damaged fertiliser and seed stocks, water channels, tubewells, and animal shelters. An approximately 13.3 million tonnes loss in production was recorded in major crops as crops standing over 2 million hectares were destroyed, and 1.2 million livestock were lost in the 2010 floods. Another severer flooding hit the Sindh and Balochistan provinces in 2011, ruining standing crops of rice, cotton, sugarcane, pulses, vegetables, sorghum and livestock. The total loss was estimated at $2.7 billion. Over 2.5 million people and more than one million hectares of cultivated land were affected by heavy rains and the resultant floods in September 2014. The cost of recovery and resilience-building was estimated at $439 million and $56 million, respectively. According to Pakistan Economic Survey 2021, cotton crop has been witnessing a distorted production during the last two decades due to climate change. Total cotton production in 2000 was 1.83 million tonnes, which has decreased to 1.51 million tonnes in 2021. In irrigated as well as spate farming systems, crops are exceedingly sensitive to water quantity and temperature fluctuations. It is predicted that agricultural production will decrease by around 8%-10% by 2040 due to rise in temperature.