INP-WealthPk

Climate Change: Time for Pakistan to Double up Efforts

October 29, 2021

By Muskan Naveed ISLAMABAD, Oct. 29 (INP-WealthPK): Global temperatures are rising due to the greenhouse effect, w need a collective human endeavour to successfully get to grips with this gigantic challenge threatening human existence. The developing world is particularly at a disadvantage, as it stands to lose the most. How does climate change impact Pakistan’s economy and what do we stand to lose? Is climate change a myth? With the increasing focus on climate change, there are some people who treat this phenomenon as a myth. The rising global temperatures are considered as part of the shifting cycles of the earth, but how true is that? The earth is around 4 billion years old and it has had cycles of booms and busts of increased Carbon Dioxide (CO2) production, which is used as an argument to invalidate climate change. However, the highest CO2 was recorded 500 million years ago at 3,000 to 9,000 parts per million (ppm) but the average temperature was not above 10°C of the current temperature. Currently, the CO2 level has increased to 416ppm, while the global temperature has risen by 1.18°C since 1880. Sea level and ocean heat have also been rising steadily as the ice melts, according to NASA. The scientific evidence for climate change is plenty. We can also witness the proof of altering the atmosphere in the form of many natural disasters like floods, wildfires etc. Climate change has a huge human as well as economic cost for the whole world, but some countries like Pakistan are more disadvantaged than others. Pakistan’s vulnerable position The developed world contributed heavily to CO2 production – with the United States being the second largest emitter. However, lesser-developed countries in the lower or lower-middle income class suffer disproportionately from the impacts of climate change. The analysis of GermanWatch has confirmed the statement various times through their Climate Change Risk Index. Pakistan had been ranked as the eight-most affected country due to climate change from 1998 to 2018. It was also placed as the fifth most vulnerable country to climate change in the long run by GermanWatch in 2020. Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change because of its unique makeup and geographical factors. It has a snow-capped north and a sea in the south. Melting glaciers increase the risk of flooding while the seasonal monsoon rains can also cause destruction. Since Pakistan is an agrarian economy, climate change also poses threats to its sustenance. According to  IMF, Pakistan is also on the verge of absolute water shortage by 2040, while an acute water shortage may be expected by 2025. Water availability has been declining steadily over the years, making the country even more vulnerable to shifts in climate. The factors mentioned above place Pakistan in a precarious situation and any further deterioration can cause a domino effect on the economy. What are the economic consequences of climate change for Pakistan? Natural disasters like floods, hurricanes and earthquakes call for heavy governmental spending. Pakistan already has a widening fiscal deficit and any increase would warrant increased borrowing. Governmental spending on developmental activity may also have to be diverted towards disaster management. Moreover, unemployment rate will skyrocket because of disasters as well as health-related issues caused by increasing pollution. Domestic industries will suffer and exports may fall, increasing our current account deficit. The economy can, effectively, move towards a slump. Pakistan will have to bear heavy economic costs to effectively deal with the changing climate. According to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank estimates, climate change has dealt Pakistan’s economy a loss of $3.8 billion. Although the government is firmly committed to fighting off the climate crisis, efforts need to be doubled if the country has to save itself from the adverse consequences.