INP-WealthPk

Chinese economy to rebound back in positive territory, says Pakistan's former central banker

April 24, 2020

ISLAMABAD, April 24 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese economy would gradually return to positive territory after reporting negative GDP growth for the first quarter, according to Yaseen Anwar, a former governor of Pakistan's central bank.

Commenting on the 6.8 percent year-on-year drop China officially announced in its gross domestic product in the first quarter of this year, the banker said the reported January-March period was "the peak time of the (COVID-19) outbreak, but China has a robust economy and with the restart of the economic activity, the country will go back to a positive trajectory, gradually."

[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="900"] A consumer(R) selects meat at a supermarket in Handan, north China's Hebei Province, April 10, 2020. (Photo by Hao Qunying/Xinhua)[/caption]

While coordinated efforts guided by government policies are expected to help the Chinese economy recover quickly, Anwar said, "the greatest achievement of China lies in controlling the virus spread in a timely manner."

This achievement, he said, "is the greatest victory for its economy because after defeating the virus things have already started getting back into place, unlike the developed countries who are still struggling to control the disease's spread."

China's manufacturing sector has already rebounded, helping maintain jobs, Anwar said.

[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="900"] Workers are busy working at the production line of an automobile manufacturing enterprise in Haibowan District of Wuhai City, north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, April 22, 2020. (Photo by Li Zhipeng/Xinhua)[/caption]

"China has very huge resources at its disposal and which have not been utilized to its optimum potential, and the fiscal resources will be used in its toolkit that will involve tax reductions and other bond issuance necessary for meeting the country's expenditures," Anwar said.

"On the monetary side, China has huge resources of the People's Bank of China, and those related to the open market operations of reducing its reserve requirements for the banking sector," Anwar said.

[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="900"] A job applicant communicates with staff from a company at an on-site job fair in Wuhan, central China's Hubei Province, April 21, 2020. (Xinhua/Xiao Yijiu)[/caption]

He said he believes that "these both fiscal and monetary measures will be used actively to rejuvenate those areas where aggregate demand or consumption will be stimulated again."

Concerning a low demand for Chinese products due to lockdowns worldwide, the expert noted that at the moment the slowdown of global demand is impacting the Chinese economy and will also impact its current account that has been in surplus for years.

[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="899"] Containers at the Lianyungang Port in Lianyungang City, east China's Jiangsu Province, April 14, 2020. (Photo by Geng Yuhe/Xinhua)[/caption]

"The demand from the rest of the world will be slowing down so its exports will be hurt. However, the positive side is that the oil price has taken a big hit and China is a large importer of oil, and as a result, its costs will be lower in terms of input costs for oil-related products that it is needed for its manufacturing sector," Anwar said.

He said he thinks that "the Chinese economic structure is still going to be very competitive in terms of this low-cost production."

"China being the factory to the world holds a great value right now" as "China's opening up gets faster," he said.