By Abdul Wajid Khan ISLAMABAD, Oct 29 (INP-WealthPk): Experts believe that even if the ongoing talks between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund do conclude successfully and the country is able to get the suspended $6 billion Extended Fund Facility back on track, the government will have to come up with a mini-budget to implement the fund’s strict conditions, which will have disastrous repercussions for the people and the government alike. Although the resumption of the IMF program will provide some short-term relief for the economy as it will decrease some pressure on its foreign exchange reserves, it will certainly increase problems for the government in the long term. If the IMF-mandated measures are implemented, they will fuel inflation, shrink economic growth, and will increase poverty and unemployment in the country. Noted economist Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan says that when a government goes into an IMF program, the share of industrial production in GDP decreases, and industrial production improves when the country is out of it. ‘IMF program follows neoliberal school of thought in which monetary policy approach is used to manage balance of payment. This model is being brutally used in Pakistan. The depreciation of the rupee against the dollar is against the principle of economics. Depreciation of the rupee increases public debt and the cost of doing business. In Pakistan’s case, the rupee was depreciated deliberately, which has made our industrial output uncompetitive. Many instruments are available to curtail imports instead of utilising the so-called monetary model, he suggests. History is also witness to the fact that IMF bailout programs have failed to deliver any tangible benefits for the Pakistani economy. These packages have stagnated the country’s economy and have failed to reduce poverty and unemployment. Pakistan was able to successfully complete only one of such bailout packages in 2016. Though it helped Pakistan consolidate foreign exchange reserves to some extent, it failed to build a foundation for the country’s long-term, durable economic development. So, instead of depending on IMF’s bailouts, Pakistan needs to find long-term and permanent solutions to fix its economic issues, particularly the current account deficit. Pakistan needs long-term and sustainable economic growth to generate employment. It will have to increase its tax-to-GDP ratio to 10 per cent to generate the much-needed revenue to be used for people’s welfare. Pakistan also needs to focus on modernisation and upgrading of its manufacturing sector to increase its exports for inclusive and durable economic growth and bridging the current account deficit. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has created a great opportunity for Pakistan to integrate its economy with that of China as the latter’s is the second largest economy in the world. Pakistan can expand its manufacturing capacity by optimally utilising opportunities under CPEC. The successful implementation of the second phase of CPEC will see massive industrialisation and job creation in the shape of special industrial and economic zones being established across the country. It is high time Pakistan grabbed the opportunities offered under CPEC and fully focused on the revival of the local industry. Because only export-oriented growth can lead Pakistan toward the path of development and prosperity.